三、商業銀行風險管理流程

圖 8 - 1 商業銀(yin)行風險管理流程

   （一）風(feng)險識別(bie)

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識別是整個(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理活動的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前提和基礎。其(qi)目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是找出(chu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)之所在和引起風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要因(yin)(yin)素(su)，并對其(qi)后(hou)果作出(chu)定(ding)性估計。風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識別主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要包括感(gan)知風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)和分析(xi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)兩方面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內容。由于每個(ge)倉儲(chu)金融業務本身就有(you)一個(ge)復雜(za)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)，影(ying)響它的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素(su)很多且(qie)其(qi)關系(xi)錯尊復雜(za)，有(you)直接(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，也(ye)有(you)間接(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)；有(you)明顯的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，也(ye)有(you)隱含的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，或是難于意料的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，而且(qie)各種風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素(su)所引起后(hou)果的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)嚴重程(cheng)序也(ye)不相同。當進(jin)行項(xiang)目(mu)決(jue)策(ce)時(shi)，完全(quan)不考慮這(zhe)些因(yin)(yin)素(su)或忽略了其(qi)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要因(yin)(yin)素(su)，都會(hui)導致(zhi)決(jue)策(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)失誤(wu)。但(dan)如對每個(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素(su)都加以考慮又會(hui)使決(jue)策(ce)復雜(za)化(hua)。這(zhe)就是要從(cong)系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)觀點(dian)出(chu)發(fa)，橫向(xiang)觀察項(xiang)目(mu)所涉(she)及的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各個(ge)方面，縱(zong)向(xiang)觀察項(xiang)目(mu)建設發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過程(cheng)，將引起風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)極其(qi)復雜(za)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事物分解成比較(jiao)簡單的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)、容易(yi)被認(ren)識的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基本單元，從(cong)錯尊復雜(za)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關系(xi)中找出(chu)因(yin)(yin)素(su)間的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)本質聯系(xi)，在眾多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響中抓住主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要因(yin)(yin)素(su)，并且(qie)分析(xi)它們因(yin)(yin)其(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)變化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)嚴重程(cheng)度，從(cong)而得(de)到比較(jiao)可(ke)靠的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結果。所以在這(zhe)一階段，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識別的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)手段，先關信(xin)息的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)收(shou)集、甄(zhen)別、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)匯(hui)總、分析(xi)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)走勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)監(jian)測部是必(bi)要的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。

（二）風險(xian)評價(jia)

不(bu)同的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)發生(sheng)地點，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)暴露及發生(sheng)損失時的(de)(de)(de)程(cheng)度(du)可能(neng)是有差(cha)異(yi)的(de)(de)(de)。相(xiang)應(ying)地，在是否要(yao)(yao)管(guan)(guan)理(li)、如何管(guan)(guan)理(li)好等方(fang)面，正確地評(ping)價風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)程(cheng)度(du)和(he)差(cha)別就(jiu)成(cheng)為提高(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)效率和(he)質(zhi)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)關(guan)鍵(jian)因素。在現(xian)在的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)中，一些(xie)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)本身直(zhi)觀明了，或因長期的(de)(de)(de)經驗積累，使(shi)它們易(yi)于估(gu)計；而另外一些(xie)則(ze)是隱含風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，可對其(qi)進行探測(ce)、顯(xian)化(hua)處(chu)理(li)，所(suo)有這些(xie)都已經成(cheng)為風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)組成(cheng)部分和(he)前提，也成(cheng)為技術(shu)性頗強的(de)(de)(de)一個專(zhuan)門領域。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)價行全面考慮，評(ping)估(gu)發生(sheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)性及其(qi)危害(hai)程(cheng)度(du)，并(bing)與公認的(de)(de)(de)安全指標相(xiang)比較，以衡量(liang)(liang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)程(cheng)度(du)，并(bing)決定(ding)(ding)是否需(xu)要(yao)(yao)采取相(xiang)應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)措施。處(chu)理(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，需(xu)要(yao)(yao)一定(ding)(ding)費用(yong)，費用(yong)與風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)損失之間的(de)(de)(de)比例(li)關(guan)系直(zhi)接(jie)影響(xiang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)效益(yi)。通過對風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)定(ding)(ding)性、定(ding)(ding)量(liang)(liang)分析和(he)比較處(chu)理(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)所(suo)支出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)費用(yong)是否有效益(yi)。

（三）風險決策

風險決策是指針對企業所面臨的各種特定風險及其大小，運(yun)用適當的方法加以(yi)分(fen)析，從而做出是否開(kai)展、何(he)時開(kai)展以(yi)及如何(he)開(kai)展倉(cang)儲(chu)金融業務等的決策過程。

（四）風險(xian)的(de)控(kong)制與防范

風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)最終目(mu)的(de)(de)是(shi)為了(le)控(kong)制風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，提出對各種(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)防范對策(ce)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)控(kong)制與防范是(shi)指(zhi)人們力(li)求規避和改變(bian)那些(xie)可(ke)(ke)能引起或加重潛在損失的(de)(de)因素(su)，采(cai)取(qu)安全有效(xiao)、積極合理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)措施來對付各種(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)控(kong)制和防范要根(gen)據風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)主體(ti)對風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)態(tai)度(du)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)承(cheng)受能力(li)、管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)者素(su)質、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)性質和影(ying)響程度(du)等(deng)許(xu)多因素(su)，運(yun)用各種(zhong)相應的(de)(de)方法來處(chu)(chu)理(li)(li)(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。其中風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)防范主要偏重于對風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)事前、損前處(chu)(chu)理(li)(li)(li)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)控(kong)制則(ze)是(shi)在項(xiang)目(mu)運(yun)作(zuo)過(guo)程中，隨時監控(kong)項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)進(jin)展，注視風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)動態(tai)，一旦出現異常情況，馬上對新出現的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)行識別、評價(jia)與決策(ce)，并采(cai)取(qu)必要的(de)(de)行動。，從這一點(dian)可(ke)(ke)以看(kan)出，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)控(kong)制與防范貫穿于風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)全過(guo)程。